How many people went to a cash position this week? There is no question that this market has scared the bajebers out of many investors, me included. Fortunately, I started going to cash some time ago, but I did give back a substantial amount of my profit.

Your broker never wants you to be in cash. You might take it out or invest it in something else. "Don't worry, the market always comes back." Yes, and pigs can fly. Fund managers are even worse. Because I recommend selling out temporarily and going to cash does not mean I don't have a long-term program. It means I don't want to participate in a down market. CASH IS A POSITION. It is the same as owning Vanguard Index 500 when the market is going up and being in a Money Market Fund earning interest while the market is going down, but not losing your principle. Make sense?

Brokers will tell you over and over that you cannot "time the market". WRONG. Just because they are not smart enough to do it does not mean it cannot be done. I have been doing it for years and have never been caught in a bear market. Even the Federal Reserve Board published a paper saying that "market timing" works. There are timing programs or services that can be bought that are very simple and easy to understand. To protect your retirement funds you must have this in place.

In my column last week I called the market a Stealth Bear. It looks like it has come out of its den. You don't want to be around when the bear is running loose. It can hurt you.

During this past few weeks we have seen some tech stocks lose 80, 90% of their value, but how about good ole Proctor & Gamble dropping 30% in one day? That is a stock held in a high percentage of retirement portfolios and hundreds, if not thousands, of mutual funds. It is going to be a long time before we see new highs in the Nasdaq Composite and the reason is very simple. There are people and fund managers who own many stocks that they would like to sell to get "even". Know anyone like that? This effectively puts a cap on any resurgence back to the top.

I have no idea if the market is going to go lower, but the tendency is toward more selling, not buying. This is a good time to have a position called CASH.

Al Thomas

Albert W. Thomas has spent most of his life in the field of finance. In 1965 he founded an insurance holding company, Security Dynamics Investment Corporation, after having been an agent and General Agent for several life insurance companies. In 1970 he became cofounder and president of Real Life Estate, Inc., that marketed a unique real estate and life insurance package.

After he became interested in commodities he bought a seat for his personal trading on the Chicago Open Board of Trade, which is now known as the MidAmerica Commodity Exchange. Later he became a full time trader and also acted as a commodity broker for a few select clients. By fellow floor traders Al is considered to be an excellent technical analyst much of which is outlined in his book IF IT DOESN'T GO UP, DON'T BUY IT! It became a best seller on Amazon.

In 1981 he sold his membership on the Exchange and with his wife, Carolyn, lived full time aboard their 41' ketch, the Aumakua (which means guardian angel in Hawaiian). They sailed in Florida and the Bahamas for two years.

He founded World Trading Group in 1984 that grew to the seventh largest introducing commodity brokerage firm in the U.S. with 35 offices from coast to coast, Alaska and Canada. It was sold in 1992.

Al is a graduate of Northwestern University with a B.S. degree in Commerce and is a member of MENSA. He is now president of Williamsburg Investment Company that syndicates his weekly financial column since 1999 to more than 300 newspapers and writes a financial market letter called Over My Shoulder that is quoted in Barron’s and many other publications. A 3-month trial subscription is available on his web site. He is a regular guest on several financial radio talk shows.

His favorite pastime is fishing.

Mr. Thomas is available for speaking engagements. Please call 321-453-5300 for more information.

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