The first chart shows SPX and the NYSE Oscillator (NYMO) 50-day MA. Previous patterns indicate when the NYMO 50-day MA falls below negative 20, then SPX will begin an uptrend. However, the NYMO 50-day MA hasn't fallen below negative 20, which indicates either volatility, a test of the recent low, or a further pullback. Above the first chart is the daily NYSE Summation Index (NYSI) and daily NYMO with its 20-day MA. The NYSI is not low enough to indicate a sustainable SPX rally. Also, the daily NYMO indicates SPX is currently near severely overbought. Moreover, previous patterns indicate the NYMO 20-day MA needs to fall below negative 30 for SPX to begin a sustainable rally. Below the first chart are the SPX MACD and CBOE Put/Call (CPC) 10-day MA. The SPX MACD created a bullish crossover late last week, while the CPC 10-day MA is at an extreme enough level to indicate the SPX rally is sustainable. However, the gray arrow shows similar extreme levels of these indicators can still allow one more SPX pullback after a bounce. The second chart shows SPX is near resistance at 1,295, i.e. the 50-day MA, the two day pause of the steep fall, and a Fibonacci level. If SPX rises above and holds 1,295, it may test the high at 1,326. However, resistance may hold after rising from the low over a week ago. If the correction is over, which is unlikely, SPX will often bounce off the 10-day MA. The third chart is a monthly SPX chart. The zigzag line shows that the previous three times SPX pulled-back, it fell roughly 75 points in two or three months. However, this time, SPX fell roughly 75 points in just over two weeks. The middle monthly Bollinger Band, currently 1,230, is the cyclical bull market support line. Above the third chart is Money Flow, which shows money is flowing into SPX at a lower rate. Also, below the third chart is the monthly MACD, which is converging towards a bearish crossover. Consequently, it seems, the cyclical bull market, which began in late 2002 may end in 2006 or early 2007. SPX may trade in a volatile range, e.g. between 1,250 and 1,300, until the FOMC announcement June 29th. If the NYMO 50-day MA falls below negative 20 and the NYMO 20-day MA falls below negative 30, which will likely take place in June or July, then SPX will be in position to begin a sustainable rally. Free charts available at http://www.PeakTrader.com Forum Index Market Forecast section. |
